Monagas IIvs
Aragua FC
COMPLETEDVenezuela · Segunda División · 9/5/2026, 7:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monagas II · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Monagas II 0-0 Aragua FC, with an exact score probability of 24%.
Prediction record
Final result
Monagas II 2-2 Aragua FC
Original prediction
Monagas II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.98 | 44.7% | 42.0% | -2.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.13 | 28.3% | 31.9% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 3.29 | 27.0% | 26.1% | -0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.13 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.7 pts
Projected Score
Monagas II 0–0 Aragua FC
Exact score probability: 24%
Predicted outcome
Monagas II
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Monagas II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Monagas IIDWLWW
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Aragua FCWWLDL
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Monagas IIAragua FC
55.0Attack33.3
66.7Defence78.3
63.3Form51.7
63.4Power56.4
0.90xG0.59