Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monaco · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Monaco 2-2 Toulouse
Original prediction
Monaco
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.64 | 58.1% | 56.8% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.19 | 22.8% | 23.2% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 4.98 | 19.1% | 20.0% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.19 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Monaco
Probability
56.8%
Model confidence
56.8%
Monaco has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MonacoWWDWW
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ToulouseLWDLD
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MonacoToulouse
53.3Attack46.7
80.0Defence40.0
86.7Form33.3
76.7Power43.0
1.99xG0.89