Monacovs
SC Freiburg
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa Conference League · 10/22/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monaco · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Monaco 3-0 SC Freiburg
Original prediction
Monaco
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 22 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.12 | 44.3% | 41.8% | -2.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 26.6% | 25.7% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.22 | 29.2% | 32.5% | 3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Monaco
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
Monaco has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80