Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monaco · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Monaco 2-0 Marseille
Original prediction
Monaco
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 42.8% | 37.6% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 26.4% | 27.6% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 3.08 | 30.8% | 34.7% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.22 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Monaco
Probability
37.6%
Model confidence
37.6%
Monaco has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MonacoWWWLW
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MarseilleWLWWL
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
MonacoMarseille
33.3Attack100.0
100.0Defence100.0
100.0Form100.0
80.3Power97.0
1.37xG1.38