Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monaco · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Monaco 0-0 Lille, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Monaco 1-1 Lille
Original prediction
Monaco
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.98 | 47.9% | 40.8% | -7.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.44 | 27.6% | 28.8% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 3.87 | 24.5% | 30.4% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.44 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.2 pts
Projected Score
Monaco 0–0 Lille
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Monaco
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Monaco has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MonacoWLWDW
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
LilleLDLWW
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MonacoLille
47.6Attack47.6
71.4Defence76.2
66.7Form66.7
64.6Power65.6
1.05xG0.92