Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monaco · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Monaco 2-1 Lens
Original prediction
Monaco
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 47.5% | 48.4% | 0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.70 | 25.8% | 25.2% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 3.57 | 26.7% | 26.4% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.01 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Monaco
Probability
48.4%
Model confidence
48.4%
Monaco has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MonacoDWWWW
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
LensDWLLW
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MonacoLens
50.0Attack66.7
83.3Defence41.7
83.3Form33.3
75.3Power47.1
1.83xG1.12