Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Moldova W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Moldova W 0-1 Georgia W
Original prediction
Moldova W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 19:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.27 | 21.0% | 36.1% | 15.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 27.8% | 28.6% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 1.75 | 51.2% | 35.3% | -15.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Moldova W
Probability
36.1%
Model confidence
36.1%
Moldova W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Moldova WWWDDD
GF 4 · GA 1 · avg 0.80/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
Georgia WLLLLL
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Moldova WGeorgia W
33.3Attack0.0
83.3Defence66.7
66.7Form0.0
64.8Power23.7
1.77xG1.15