Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Moldova W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Moldova W 1-0 Georgia W
Original prediction
Moldova W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 19:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.87 | 31.4% | 35.7% | 4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 28.9% | 28.9% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.27 | 39.7% | 35.4% | -4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.87 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Moldova W
Probability
35.7%
Model confidence
35.7%
Moldova W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Moldova WWDDDL
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 0.60/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
Georgia WLLLLW
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Moldova WGeorgia W
33.3Attack50.0
66.7Defence50.0
33.3Form50.0
45.3Power50.0
1.64xG1.46