Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Slovakia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Moldova 0-4 Slovakia
Original prediction
Slovakia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 8.21 | 11.4% | 25.7% | 14.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.67 | 20.1% | 26.4% | 6.4 pts |
| Away | 1.37 | 68.5% | 47.9% | -20.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Slovakia
Probability
47.9%
Model confidence
47.9%
Slovakia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MoldovaWDLDD
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
SlovakiaDWWDW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
MoldovaSlovakia
33.3Attack55.6
55.6Defence77.8
44.4Form77.8
47.5Power72.8
1.01xG1.32