Moldovavs
Faroe Islands
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 9/29/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Moldova · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Moldova 1-0 Faroe Islands, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Moldova 1-1 Faroe Islands
Original prediction
Moldova
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.84 | 32.9% | 42.2% | 9.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.95 | 31.7% | 30.6% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.63 | 35.5% | 27.3% | -8.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.95 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.3 pts
Projected Score
Moldova 1–0 Faroe Islands
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Moldova
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Moldova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MoldovaLDDLL
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Faroe IslandsDWWLL
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
MoldovaFaroe Islands
41.7Attack27.8
91.7Defence66.7
75.0Form33.3
70.9Power45.6
1.15xG0.64