Moldova U21vs
Kazakhstan U21
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · 10/6/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Moldova U21 · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Moldova U21 3-2 Kazakhstan U21
Original prediction
Moldova U21
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 9 September 2026 at 18:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.36 | 38.4% | 43.2% | 4.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 28.5% | 25.5% | -3.0 pts |
| Away | 2.74 | 33.1% | 31.3% | -1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.36 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Moldova U21
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
43.2%
Moldova U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60