Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Molde · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (10%), 3-1 (9%), 4-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Molde 6-1 Start
Original prediction
Molde
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.32 | 70.6% | 80.0% | 9.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.43 | 17.1% | 11.9% | -5.2 pts |
| Away | 7.54 | 12.3% | 8.1% | -4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.32 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–010%
- 2.3–19%
- 3.4–09%
Predicted outcome
Molde
Probability
80.0%
Model confidence
80.0%
Molde has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MoldeDWLWW
GF 16 · GA 5 · avg 3.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
StartLWWLW
GF 12 · GA 11 · avg 2.40/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
MoldeStart
69.7Attack36.4
48.5Defence27.3
56.1Form24.2
58.4Power31.7
3.55xG0.96