Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Qarabag · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Molde are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWWLL), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Qarabag are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLWL), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Qarabag hold a 25.6-point power-rating edge (45.5 v 71.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.7% in the UEFA Europa League, while Qarabag holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Qarabag
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
Qarabag has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20