Moldevs
Fredrikstad
COMPLETEDNorway · Eliteserien · 10/25/2026, 6:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Molde · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%), 3-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Molde 5-1 Fredrikstad
Original prediction
Molde
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.40 | 66.6% | 58.5% | -8.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.91 | 18.9% | 21.7% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 6.44 | 14.4% | 19.7% | 5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.40 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.2–09%
- 3.3–19%
Predicted outcome
Molde
Probability
58.5%
Model confidence
58.5%
Molde has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MoldeWDWLW
GF 17 · GA 5 · avg 3.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
FredrikstadLDDWD
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
MoldeFredrikstad
75.4Attack40.6
49.3Defence47.8
58.0Form42.0
60.4Power45.5
2.66xG1.09