Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Molde · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 4-1 (8%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Molde 1-2 Aalesund
Original prediction
Molde
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.33 | 70.0% | 76.0% | 6.0 pts |
| Draw | 5.56 | 16.7% | 12.8% | -3.9 pts |
| Away | 6.99 | 13.3% | 11.2% | -2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.4–18%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Molde
Probability
76.0%
Model confidence
76.0%
Molde has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MoldeWWWWW
GF 27 · GA 4 · avg 5.40/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
AalesundWLWLW
GF 21 · GA 7 · avg 4.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
MoldeAalesund
71.7Attack51.7
50.0Defence25.0
60.0Form30.0
60.8Power37.9
3.73xG1.33