Mold Alexandravs
Newtown AFC
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 10/3/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mold Alexandra · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mold Alexandra 1-2 Newtown AFC
Original prediction
Mold Alexandra
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.56 | 35.3% | 41.0% | 5.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.63 | 24.9% | 24.0% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.27 | 39.9% | 34.9% | -4.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Mold Alexandra
Probability
41.0%
Model confidence
41.0%
Mold Alexandra has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 17 · GA 6 · avg 3.40/1.20
GF 7 · GA 1 · avg 1.40/0.20