Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
MOIK · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
MOIK 3-1 Karvan
Original prediction
MOIK
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.41 | 37.2% | 39.5% | 2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 27.3% | 27.4% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.52 | 35.5% | 33.1% | -2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.41 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
MOIK
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
MOIK has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MOIKWWWDL
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
KarvanWDWLW
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
MOIKKarvan
60.0Attack60.0
80.0Defence73.3
66.7Form66.7
68.7Power66.2
1.31xG1.10