Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
MOIK · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction details
Prediction record created 12 October 2026 at 15:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: -| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.77 | 32.5% | 37.9% | 5.4 pts |
| Draw | 2.90 | 31.0% | 27.7% | -3.3 pts |
| Away | 2.46 | 36.5% | 34.4% | -2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 - · Draw - · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
MOIK
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
MOIK has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MOIKWWWWD
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ŞahdağWLWWW
GF 13 · GA 2 · avg 2.60/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
MOIKŞahdağ
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
2.02xG1.72