Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
MOIK · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
MOIK 0-1 Şahdağ
Original prediction
MOIK
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.27 | 39.6% | 49.6% | 10.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 28.1% | 26.0% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.78 | 32.3% | 24.4% | -7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
MOIK
Probability
49.6%
Model confidence
49.6%
MOIK has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MOIKWLDLL
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
ŞahdağDDWWW
GF 5 · GA 1 · avg 1.00/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
MOIKŞahdağ
65.4Attack44.4
65.4Defence66.7
60.5Form53.1
62.9Power56.1
1.43xG0.83