Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rudar · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mogren 0-0 Rudar
Original prediction
Rudar
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.42 | 37.5% | 34.4% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 27.9% | 25.5% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 2.62 | 34.6% | 40.0% | 5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.25 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Rudar
Probability
40.0%
Model confidence
40.0%
Rudar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MogrenDDLLL
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
RudarWLWLD
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MogrenRudar
37.0Attack51.5
51.9Defence48.5
25.9Form45.5
40.5Power49.4
1.22xG1.40