Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Modena · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Modena 3-0 Cesena
Original prediction
Modena
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 12:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.53 | 60.7% | 54.9% | -5.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.08 | 22.8% | 24.3% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 5.63 | 16.5% | 20.8% | 4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.53 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Modena
Probability
54.9%
Model confidence
54.9%
Modena has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ModenaLWWDL
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
CesenaDLDDD
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
ModenaCesena
57.1Attack38.1
61.9Defence57.1
61.9Form38.1
61.9Power47.4
1.59xG0.86