Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Moca · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Moca are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWLDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Vega Real are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Moca hold a 6.3-point power-rating edge (53.2 v 46.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 28.5% in the Liga Mayor, while Moca holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 22% BTTS chance and 14% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Moca
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
28.5%
Moca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20