Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Moca are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWLDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Salcedo are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Salcedo hold a 4.0-point power-rating edge (53.2 v 57.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 18.3% in the Liga Mayor, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 36% BTTS chance and 26% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
35.9%
Model confidence
18.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00