Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Salcedo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Moca 0-0 Salcedo
Original prediction
Salcedo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.38 | 37.4% | 33.6% | -3.7 pts |
| Draw | 2.92 | 30.4% | 29.5% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.75 | 32.3% | 36.9% | 4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.92 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Salcedo
Probability
36.9%
Model confidence
36.9%
Salcedo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MocaDDWLD
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
SalcedoWDWLW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MocaSalcedo
0.0Attack100.0
100.0Defence66.7
33.3Form100.0
45.3Power88.7
1.07xG1.28