Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Moca · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Moca 1-0 Jarabacoa, with an exact score probability of 25%.
Prediction record
Final result
Moca 1-0 Jarabacoa
Original prediction
Moca
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 September 2026 at 09:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.30 | 68.2% | 62.3% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.25 | 20.8% | 26.6% | 5.8 pts |
| Away | 8.05 | 11.0% | 11.1% | 0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.30 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.9 pts
Projected Score
Moca 1–0 Jarabacoa
Exact score probability: 25%
Predicted outcome
Moca
Probability
62.3%
Model confidence
62.3%
Moca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MocaLLLDW
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
JarabacoaDDLLL
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MocaJarabacoa
26.7Attack20.0
73.3Defence36.7
43.3Form16.7
50.8Power27.6
1.16xG0.35