Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cibao · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Moca 2-1 Cibao
Original prediction
Cibao
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.01 | 29.6% | 29.5% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw | 2.93 | 30.4% | 29.4% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.23 | 40.0% | 41.1% | 1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–114%
Predicted outcome
Cibao
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
41.1%
Cibao has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MocaWDDDD
GF 2 · GA 1 · avg 0.40/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
CibaoDWWLW
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
MocaCibao
8.3Attack66.7
100.0Defence75.0
50.0Form75.0
56.2Power72.5
0.89xG1.20