ML Vitebskvs
Arsenal
COMPLETEDBelarus · Premier League · 9/18/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
ML Vitebsk · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (15%), 3-0 (13%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
ML Vitebsk 5-1 Arsenal
Original prediction
ML Vitebsk
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.13 | 81.8% | 80.6% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw | 7.36 | 12.6% | 13.2% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 16.31 | 5.7% | 6.1% | 0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.13 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–015%
- 2.3–013%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
ML Vitebsk
Probability
80.6%
Model confidence
80.6%
ML Vitebsk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00