Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mixco · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Mixco are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLW), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.80 conceded, while UMECIT are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DLDLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and UMECIT hold an 11.3-point power-rating edge (15.3 v 26.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.3% in the CONCACAF Central American Cup, while Mixco holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 52% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Mixco
Probability
41.2%
Model confidence
13.3%
Mixco has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00