Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mixco · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mixco 3-2 Aurora
Original prediction
Mixco
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.45 | 62.5% | 43.7% | -18.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.03 | 22.4% | 27.2% | 4.8 pts |
| Away | 6.00 | 15.1% | 29.0% | 14.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.45 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Mixco
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
Mixco has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MixcoLDLWW
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
AuroraLLWWL
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MixcoAurora
33.3Attack33.3
0.0Defence33.3
0.0Form0.0
15.3Power23.7
1.30xG1.16