Mito Hollyhockvs
FC Tokyo
COMPLETEDJapan · J-League Cup · 10/14/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Tokyo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mito Hollyhock 1-0 FC Tokyo
Original prediction
FC Tokyo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.23 | 17.4% | 33.0% | 15.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.09 | 22.2% | 27.5% | 5.2 pts |
| Away | 1.51 | 60.4% | 39.5% | -20.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
FC Tokyo
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
FC Tokyo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 12 · GA 0 · avg 2.40/0.00