Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santos · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Mirassol are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DDWDW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Santos are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLDLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Santos hold a 3.4-point power-rating edge (42.7 v 46.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.2% in the Serie A, while Santos holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 56% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Santos
Probability
37.2%
Model confidence
37.2%
Santos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60