Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mirassol · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Mirassol are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Lanus are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DLWWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Mirassol hold a 14.9-point power-rating edge (60.5 v 45.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.4% in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, while Mirassol holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 28% BTTS chance and 22% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Mirassol
Probability
45.4%
Model confidence
45.4%
Mirassol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40