Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Coritiba · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Mirassol are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (LDDDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Coritiba are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWLDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Coritiba hold a 4.1-point power-rating edge (45.3 v 49.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.8% in the Serie A, while Coritiba holds the strongest overall chance at 34% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 44% BTTS chance and 36% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Coritiba
Probability
34.4%
Model confidence
14.8%
Coritiba has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00