Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mirandes · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mirandes 1-1 Zamora
Original prediction
Mirandes
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 06:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.99 | 45.6% | 42.7% | -2.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 28.3% | 27.8% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 3.48 | 26.1% | 29.5% | 3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.21 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Mirandes
Probability
42.7%
Model confidence
42.7%
Mirandes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MirandesLWDWW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ZamoraWWLWL
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MirandesZamora
60.0Attack46.7
60.0Defence66.7
66.7Form60.0
64.6Power59.9
1.35xG1.06