Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Miramar 0-0 Paysandu, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Miramar 1-0 Paysandu
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.59 | 35.1% | 34.2% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.13 | 29.0% | 31.2% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.53 | 35.9% | 34.6% | -1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.2 pts
Projected Score
Miramar 0–0 Paysandu
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.2%
Model confidence
34.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MiramarWLDWW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
PaysanduDDLWW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
MiramarPaysandu
32.1Attack38.5
57.7Defence56.4
34.6Form37.2
43.6Power46.5
0.89xG0.90