Mingəçevirvs
Şimal
COMPLETEDAzerbaijan · Birinci Dasta · 10/15/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Şimal · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mingəçevir 1-4 Şimal
Original prediction
Şimal
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.71 | 33.6% | 35.1% | 1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 25.6% | 26.3% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.23 | 40.8% | 38.6% | -2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Şimal
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Şimal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MingəçevirLLLDL
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
ŞimalDLDLW
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
MingəçevirŞimal
25.0Attack33.3
16.7Defence33.3
8.3Form16.7
21.2Power30.9
1.37xG1.44