Milton Keynes Donsvs
Reading
COMPLETEDEngland · League One · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Reading · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Milton Keynes Dons 1-5 Reading
Original prediction
Reading
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.56 | 36.4% | 29.2% | -7.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 26.6% | 26.5% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.52 | 37.0% | 44.3% | 7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.52 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Reading
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
Reading has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 6 · avg 3.00/1.20
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40