Milton Keynes Donsvs
Luton
COMPLETEDEngland · League One · 10/17/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Luton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Milton Keynes Dons 2-1 Luton
Original prediction
Luton
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.16 | 29.4% | 27.6% | -1.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 25.7% | 22.1% | -3.6 pts |
| Away | 2.06 | 44.9% | 50.4% | 5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Luton
Probability
50.4%
Model confidence
50.4%
Luton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Milton Keynes DonsLWWDD
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
LutonWDWLL
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Milton Keynes DonsLuton
37.5Attack66.7
37.5Defence37.5
25.0Form45.8
36.0Power50.8
1.44xG2.14