GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 10/8/2024, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Milton Keynes Dons · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1

Highconfidence

Milton Keynes Dons are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DWDDL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Arsenal U21 are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (WLLLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Milton Keynes Dons hold a 22.2-point power-rating edge (61.9 v 39.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.5% in the EFL Trophy, while Milton Keynes Dons holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 78% BTTS chance and 81% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Milton Keynes Dons

Probability

53.5%

Model confidence

53.5%

Milton Keynes Dons has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Milton Keynes DonsDWDDL

GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20

BTTS 5/5O2.5 2/5
Arsenal U21WLLLL

GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20

BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Milton Keynes DonsArsenal U21
66.7Attack75.0
41.7Defence16.7
75.0Form33.3
61.9Power39.7
2.71xG1.78
View match centre →