Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Reading · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Millwall are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLDWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Reading are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 2.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Reading hold a 67.3-point power-rating edge (7.0 v 74.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.2% in the League Cup, while Reading holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Reading
Probability
45.2%
Model confidence
45.2%
Reading has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 2 · GA 13 · avg 0.40/2.60