GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 5/24/2023, 2:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Millonarios · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 2-0

Highconfidence

Millonarios are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DDDWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Penarol are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWLWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Millonarios hold a 31.4-point power-rating edge (55.6 v 24.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 64.1% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Millonarios holds the strongest overall chance at 64% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 55% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Millonarios

Probability

64.1%

Model confidence

64.1%

Millonarios has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

MillonariosDDDWW

GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
PenarolDWLWW

GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
MillonariosPenarol
47.6Attack38.1
61.9Defence14.3
52.4Form14.3
55.6Power24.2
2.12xG0.80
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