GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 5/4/2023, 12:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Millonarios · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Millonarios are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LWDWD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while America Mineiro are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Millonarios hold a 4.6-point power-rating edge (55.6 v 50.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.7% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Millonarios holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Millonarios

Probability

40.7%

Model confidence

40.7%

Millonarios has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

MillonariosLWDWD

GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
America MineiroLWLLL

GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20

BTTS 2/5O2.5 5/5
MillonariosAmerica Mineiro
47.6Attack66.7
61.9Defence44.4
52.4Form41.7
55.6Power50.9
1.69xG1.43
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