Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Milan II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Milan II 0-0 Piacenza
Original prediction
Milan II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: -| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.98 | 29.9% | 36.1% | 6.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 27.6% | 28.5% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.09 | 42.5% | 35.4% | -7.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 - · Draw - · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Milan II
Probability
36.1%
Model confidence
36.1%
Milan II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Milan IILWWLW
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
PiacenzaDWWWD
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Milan IIPiacenza
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.46xG1.24