Miedź Legnica IIvs
Sparta Katowice
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 3 · 9/26/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sparta Katowice · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 1-3 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Miedź Legnica II 0-2 Sparta Katowice
Original prediction
Sparta Katowice
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.26 | 39.7% | 30.6% | -9.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.3% | 23.9% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.56 | 35.0% | 45.5% | 10.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.1–37%
Predicted outcome
Sparta Katowice
Probability
45.5%
Model confidence
45.5%
Sparta Katowice has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 18 · GA 10 · avg 3.60/2.00
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40