Middlesbrough U21vs
Leeds United U21
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League 2 Division One · 9/13/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Middlesbrough U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (8%), 2-1 (7%), 4-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Middlesbrough U21 4-4 Leeds United U21
Original prediction
Middlesbrough U21
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.82 | 49.5% | 63.9% | 14.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.03 | 22.4% | 16.2% | -6.2 pts |
| Away | 3.21 | 28.1% | 19.9% | -8.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.03 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–18%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.4–17%
Predicted outcome
Middlesbrough U21
Probability
63.9%
Model confidence
63.9%
Middlesbrough U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80