Mickleover Sportsvs
Alfreton Town
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Trophy · 10/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mickleover Sports · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mickleover Sports 1-2 Alfreton Town
Original prediction
Mickleover Sports
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.71 | 24.2% | 39.0% | 14.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.87 | 23.2% | 25.4% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 1.71 | 52.6% | 35.5% | -17.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Mickleover Sports
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
Mickleover Sports has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40