GGOALVIO

USA · USL Championship · 4/4/2026, 8:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

Miami FC are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Hartford Athletic are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWDWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Hartford Athletic hold a 2.4-point power-rating edge (43.5 v 45.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.9% in the USL Championship, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 31% BTTS chance and 21% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

42.9%

Model confidence

42.9%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Miami FCWWDLW

GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Hartford AthleticDWDWL

GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Miami FCHartford Athletic
40.0Attack24.1
46.7Defence68.5
36.7Form38.9
43.5Power45.8
0.80xG0.77
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