Mgarr Unitedvs
Zurrieq
COMPLETEDMalta · Challenge League · 10/25/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mgarr United · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mgarr United 0-1 Zurrieq
Original prediction
Mgarr United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 50.4% | 49.3% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.4% | 26.2% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.74 | 24.2% | 24.6% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Mgarr United
Probability
49.3%
Model confidence
49.3%
Mgarr United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20