Mgarr Unitedvs
Vittoriosa Stars
COMPLETEDMalta · Challenge League · 10/10/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mgarr United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mgarr United 2-0 Vittoriosa Stars
Original prediction
Mgarr United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.91 | 47.4% | 38.5% | -8.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.3% | 27.0% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 3.31 | 27.3% | 34.5% | 7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.91 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Mgarr United
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
38.5%
Mgarr United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80