Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mexico W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mexico W 3-1 Jamaica W
Original prediction
Mexico W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 10:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.35 | 66.7% | 41.7% | -25.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.82 | 18.7% | 26.3% | 7.6 pts |
| Away | 6.12 | 14.7% | 32.0% | 17.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.35 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-25.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Mexico W
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
Mexico W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Mexico WLDWWW
GF 16 · GA 6 · avg 3.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Jamaica WWLLLD
GF 4 · GA 16 · avg 0.80/3.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
Mexico WJamaica W
50.0Attack55.6
41.7Defence66.7
50.0Form77.8
50.3Power70.7
1.45xG1.71