Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mexico · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 3-0 (13%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mexico 1-1 Peru
Original prediction
Mexico
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.52 | 61.2% | 62.0% | 0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 25.0% | 21.9% | -3.1 pts |
| Away | 6.70 | 13.9% | 16.1% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.72 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.3–013%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Mexico
Probability
62.0%
Model confidence
62.0%
Mexico has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MexicoDWWWD
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
PeruLLWDL
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MexicoPeru
59.3Attack40.0
88.9Defence20.0
77.8Form26.7
75.2Power32.7
2.70xG0.61